The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran has triggered an unprecedented reshaping of global trade routes, with African ports emerging as critical alternatives for maritime commerce worth billions .

Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping after the breakout of war in Iran on February 28, 2026, reinforced by renewed Houthi-linked risk in the Red Sea, major container lines Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, and MSC suspended Suez Canal transits and rerouted their fleets around the southern tip of Africa .

The crisis began when the United States and Israel initiated coordinated airstrikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury on February 28, targeting military facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei . Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced on March 27 that the strait is closed to any vessel going “to and from” the ports of the U.S., Israel, and their allies .

Surge in African Port Traffic

The diversions have created unexpected opportunities for African maritime infrastructure. According to data cited by Cape Town port authorities, cape diversions surged 112 percent in early March 2026 alone . Mombasa is expected to receive 52 ships in the next 14 days, compared with 40, while Dar es Salaam has increased its number of vessels from 27 in two weeks to 38 .

“The detour to the Cape adds roughly 4,500 nautical miles and 10-14 days to the Asia-Europe rotations,” said shipping analyst Peter Sand of Xeneta. The rerouting consumes about a million dollars more in fuel per round voyage and increases demand for chandling services, bunkering, crew provisioning, maintenance, and other logistics support .

Container ships are now moored in Cape Town harbour in scenes reminiscent of the era before the Suez Canal existed . However, the UN Conference on Trade and Development has noted that both Mombasa and Dar lack the operational sophistication and handling capacity to manage large volumes of major container vessels efficiently, limiting their ability to fully capitalize on the disruption .

Energy Crisis Transforms Continental Markets

The blockade has particularly impacted African energy supplies. Brent crude oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel on March 8, 2026, for the first time in four years, rising to $126 per barrel at its peak, with the closure described as the largest disruption to energy supply since the 1970s energy crisis .

Nigeria’s Dangote refinery has emerged as a critical supplier for the continent. Kenya and South Africa reportedly approached Dangote in mid-March seeking to secure fuel supplies, with the refinery producing 650,000 barrels per day but reserving nearly 75 percent for the domestic market .

Data from tanker-tracking firm Kpler show Nigeria’s exports of clean petroleum products have risen to about 214,000 barrels per day in March from an average 100,000 bpd in February, with shipments to other African countries climbing to about 90,000 bpd from 38,000 bpd previously .

David Bird, managing director of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, told reporters: “What would be worse than $120 oil is no oil, pointing out that some countries are already implementing rationing because they rely completely on imports” .

Economic Ripple Effects Across the Continent

A report by two U.N. agencies, the African Union and the African Development Bank said African economies could lose 0.2 percentage points of GDP growth in 2026 if the conflict lasts more than six months, warning that the longer the conflict lasts and the more severe the disruption to shipping routes and energy and fertilizer supplies, the greater the risk of a significant growth slowdown .

The Gulf region produces nearly half of the world’s urea and 30% of ammonia, with about one-third of the world’s fertilizer passing through the strait, and urea prices have increased by 50% since the start of the war as of late March 2026 .

In Morocco, 38-year-old civil servant Mustapha Abouzir said: “I think this concern is mainly about the economic situation. As a nation, we are affected much more by what is happening at the regional level than by what is happening domestically” .

U.S. Military Response and Diplomatic Tensions

The United States has responded with military action. On March 19, the U.S. began an aerial campaign against Iranian targets to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with General Dan Caine announcing the deployment of A-10 Thunderbolt II jets to strike “fast-attack watercraft” and Apache gunships to “handle one-way attack drones” .

However, international support has been limited. Several U.S.-